A few days ago some of the bright lights in the social media domain were all lathered up about a group of academics who were able to ‘prove’ that Twitter ‘predicted the outcome of stock market’. As it turns out, it was a worthy attempt by some academics who looked at historical data and found a parallel relationship between public sentiment and stock market movement (go to the link here). They were the first to admit that they did not find any causality between Twitter and movement in the stock market. The paper was unpublished and had not been through an academic peer review. Nary a peep from those same lathered up socialmedialists since (I think they might have been avatars anyway, not real people).
This got me thinking about the United Airlines incident whereby some poor unfortunate troubadour had his guitar allegedly mishandled and damaged by United Airlines. He was so incensed that he wrote a song about the incident and posted it on YouTube. The digerati swooned as it was ideal fodder for these Internet imperialists to take down yet another brand. So United was vilified as have many airlines since the rise of social media platforms. As they are fond of saying, Mr./Mrs. CMO – you no longer control the brand.
Well, here we are a year since the United Broke My Guitar incident. It’s earnings week in the US airline industry. So far, AMR, Southwest and Delta have fared quite well and most airlines are expected to post strong Q3 results.
Which brings me back to United Airlines. Since July 2009, United stock has been steadily on the rise. In fact, it would appear that the rally coincided almost to the day of the Broken Guitar incident and the stock has risen 10-fold since. Maybe there really is something to this social media analysis stuff.
– Ted Morris, 4ScreensMedia.